When will robots takeover the roads? (The future of autonomous cars)

Remember Detective Del Spooner’s (played by Will Smith) ride in the 2004 blockbuster, I, Robot? Set in the Year 2025, the futuristic Audi RSQ sport coupe and its self-driving capabilities has enabled Spooner to sit in the driver seat reading his case notes while the car brings him to his next destination.

Even though the Audi RSQ is a concept car that is built for the Hollywood Film, have you noticed how it bears an uncanny resemblance to the Audi R8? Will the world of I, Robot soon become a reality all around the world?

Carmakers are still divided over the way they should approach autonomous vehicles, which are supposed to minimise human error, reduce the number of traffic accidents, and save human lives.

Audi, Mercedes, and Nissan prefer a system that increases the level of autonomy in cars of the present, only returning control of the cars during emergencies. Jaguar Land Rover and Ford, however, view such an approach as unsafe, and would only develop autonomous technology in its vehicles when it is deemed more capable of driving itself in all kinds of situations.

While autonomous cars imply that these cars are able to drive themselves, in reality, the Society of Automotive Engineers states that there are five levels of autonomy. On the scale, zero means that it has absolutely no form of automation and the driver will need to control all situations independently. On the other end, cars on the fifth level of automation can deal with all sorts of terrains on its own and all steering wheels and pedals can essentially be removed from the car itself.

Many of the cars in production in the present world have Level 1 or Level 2 autonomy. These include features like parking assist or adaptive cruise control technologies that are available in many cars like the Volvo XC60, BMW 750i, Mercedes-Benz S65 AMG, and the Infiniti Q50S. The Audi A8 is an example of a Level 3 autonomy car (also known as conditional autonomy cars) that will allow the driver to safely take his attention off the wheel and roads under certain conditions. Hyundai also just went a notch higher with its newly launched Nexo SUVs that are also fuel cell electric vehicles on Level 4 autonomy.

As for fully autonomous (Level 5) cars, they are coming (many are still concept cars at the moment), but not without the plethora of concerns regarding regulations and the public’s acceptance to robots on the road.

Singapore is embracing self-driving technologies, but sadly not quite yet in the private car ownership realm. Singapore believes that autonomous technologies have the potential to shape the transport system and improve its land and manpower scarcity issues.

Singapore started with several road-testing trials for autonomous vehicles at one-north. It also has Auto Riders at Gardens By The Bay, an outdoor self-driving vehicle that ferries passengers on a fixed route for $5. Staff and students of the Nanyang Technological University get to enjoy shuttling between the campuses on two electric autonomous vehicles. For the elderly and individuals with disabilities, a driverless SMART (Singapore - MIT Alliance for Research and Technology) e-scooter is currently on public trial. To speed up efficiency in commercial settings, the Ministry of Transport, along with PSA Corporation, has implemented tests on autonomous trucks to transport containers from one port terminal to another.

While these are for selected niche areas and certain regions in Singapore, in 2016, nuTonomy (United States autonomous car tech startup) has obtained approval to offer driverless taxi rides in Singapore. Even though the service is only available to invitees at the moment, it is one of the signs of the growing autonomous vehicle scene in Singapore.

Singaporeans are not foreign to the idea of robots in its transport system. The North East Line is the world’s first driverless underground rail rapid transit line. Following which, the Circle Line and the Downtown Line (longest underground driverless rail system) were constructed. But to have robot taxis, buses, and cars on the road where they are various ways and paths to take, will you trust these robots to share the same roads as you, or even to ride in them?

Yes, autonomous cars follow rules but following too strictly to these rules may also cause some problems. For instance, when overtaking, the other car will naturally slow down to allow you to take over and filter safely into the lane. How will robot cars know that they will need to slow down? Or perhaps when the robot car senses two individuals standing at the side of a road. It stops to allow the two pedestrians to cross the road. The two people may be preparing to cross, or they could merely be chatting, or waiting for the school bus. With human drivers, we are able to decipher the situation with one or a few glances and drive past them onward to our next point. But the autonomous cars may just continue waiting. If that is the case then how long should they wait? Many cities are also facing problems in regulating these autonomous cars.

While the main goal of these robotic cars in overcrowded cities like Singapore is to encourage public transportation and minimise the reliance on private cars, one of the problem would be the displacement of jobs – we will no longer require bus captains, taxi drivers, Uber and Grab drivers, and all the occupations that are in the relevant industries. With everyone taking the more efficient and affordable public transportation, this will mean other stakeholders in the private vehicle ownership industry will be greatly affected: No cars? Then there will no longer be a need for car salesmen, car dealers, car workshops, et cetera.

Or perhaps like many other car lovers who enjoy being in control of the wheel, autonomous cars may even be seen as taking away this sense of freedom, control, and power. Yes, it is convenient and supposedly safer, but drivers WANT to be in control of the routes to take, the speed to get to the destinations, or even a spontaneous Macdonalds drive-through? Autonomous cars have yet to gain that flexibility and would rigidly take you to the destination (even if it sometimes does not make much sense - Have you ever taken a Grab Share that requires the driver to drop off a passenger whose destination may be much further than yours but the system insists on that particular order?).

The government's continual effort to rally for the introduction of autonomous vehicles into Singapore is to improve the public transporation in our city (which is ultimately a good thing!). But that would mean that these autonomous cars may see a slower entry for private car owners, almost like that of the electric vehicles.

With the increasing cost of owning a car, and the zero car growth rates, will we ever see the day we sit in our own cars like Spooner in I, Robot? Robots may roam and rule the roads in the near future, but how soon will we be able to call one of these autonomous cars our own?

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